Prediction of Jelle Sels vs Aziz Ouakaa at Soma Bay Challenger 11-18-25

• Second Serve Performance: Over the past six months, Jelle Sels has a slight edge with 44.18% of his second serve points won, compared to Aziz Ouakaa's 42.97%. Could this hint at better stability from Sels under pressure?
• Return Game Statistics: Aziz Ouakaa performs better in returning games, especially on the first serve, holding a 31.35% win rate compared to Jelle Sels' 25.76%. On second serve returns, Ouakaa again leads with 47.44% versus Sels' 43.28%.
• Under Pressure: Sels protects his serve more effectively, saving 56.31% of breakpoints, while Ouakaa saves 50.56%. This suggests Sels might manage critical points better during the match.
• Overall Performance: Within the last year, Sels has a slightly better match-winning percentage than Ouakaa, at 53.95% vs 51.32%.
• Favorite Surface: Both players thrive on different surfaces; Sels thrives on clay while Ouakaa's best results come from hard courts. Will the surface dictate the outcome?
• Competitive Level: Sels has been playing higher-level tournaments, despite having a lower win rate of 44.19% in Challengers/ITF compared to Ouakaa's Futures/Satellites/ITF 51.56%.
• Quality of Opponents: Both players have faced similarly ranked opponents, with negligible differences in average rankings.
• Deciding Sets: If the match extends to a deciding set, Sels has a superior 68% win rate in these situations over the past year, better than Ouakaa's 57%.
• Break Point Conversion: Ouakaa is more effective in break point scenarios, converting at 40.17%, noticeably higher than Sels' 31.25% conversion rate.

Editorial Prediction (November 18, 2025, UTC):

Jelle Sels has shown a slight edge in second serve performance, potentially offering a more reliable game in longer rallies. Coupled with his ability to save break points, he might find himself poised to withstand pressure in tight moments.

Despite Aziz Ouakaa's stronger return stats and superior breakpoint conversion, he might falter under the defensive advantage that Sels holds. Nevertheless, Ouakaa's prowess in first serve returns and his success rate on break opportunities signify a capacity to turn games in his favor should he capitalize on Sels' potential lapses.

Overall, if the match extends into a final set, Sels' 68% success rate in such situations tips the favor slightly towards him. His experience in higher-level tournaments might also provide him with the necessary edge when it comes to critical junctures of this match.

Considering these factors, Jelle Sels emerges as the likely winner for this upcoming tennis match, provided he leverages his strengths at pivotal points.